Right. Less than 24hrs before the Vitruvian, so high time for a reality check ahead of the race.
Frankly, I'm of mixed minds about it. Some factors:
- I'm getting heavier again. Work & work-related stress have kicked in lately and adherence to fitnat has been a bit hit-and-miss. 4kg heavier than I was ahead of Poland in May.
- Mojo's been well, let's say *mixed* after Poland. June was largely lost to prolonged recovery (incl. illness) and while I got pumped up again with the visit in Les Stables, I'd say motivation has been drifting sideways since then.
- Training consistency has gone down over the last couple of months. Health, work, lack of motivation, the lot.
- Injuries are creeping up - particularly the hamstring / hip combo likes to rear its head, which could impact the run tomorrow.
All that said, on a good day I can still be quite quick, even if not exactly Poland-quick. Had a few very good long bike & run sessions in the last couple of weeks (
http://www.strava.com/activities/184129580,
http://www.strava.com/activities/181176174), so seems like I'm actually capable of throwing in a pretty good performance. Guess all will depend on how I feel on the day.
Keeping all that in mind, here's what I think is possible (on a good day) vs. likely:
Swim: 33:00 / 36:00
I've slowed down since Poland, mainly due to shoulder pain in training. Still, on a good day around 33 mins should be possible.
Bike: 2:30:00 / 2:40:00
Route is slightly shorter than PL I think, but also lumpier. Many say The Ripple is not as tough as some think, but having done it last month I think it's tougher than many say. With a few more kilos to haul up the hill it'll definitely sting, especially on the second lap. Wind may be a bit of an issue too. So - TBC.
Run: 1:45:00 / 1:55:00
Injury-allowing, my running form is actually better than it was in Poland. And, the course is much more digestible here as well (flat, even surface, etc.). This is also where I blew up in PL, so truth will be in the pudding on this.
T1 + T2: 5:00
Transitions generally shorter than they were in Poland, and I should be able to find some time there too - have been practicing the half-flying mount since France and am getting comfortable doing it, so will have a go at it. Fewer things to put on / take off too - number belt under wetsuit, helmet visor vs. shades, etc. Should be pretty fast.
Summing these times up, bar any unforeseen circumstances (mechanical, cataclysmic weather, fundamental lack of mojo on the day) I expect to land somewhere in the 5:15 region. If stars align - and they rarely do - I could squeeze it under 5hrs (which would make me ecstatic). Whatever happens though, I intend to really enjoy the race and take the atmosphere in - to remind myself why I love doing this in the first place.